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CIPD PRESS RELEASE 1 October 2008
Slump in productivity and rising unit wage costs spells bad news for jobs
Figures on UK productivity and unit wage costs published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) underline the deterioration in the economy and point to mounting pressure on employers to cut jobs, says John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
Dr Philpott comments:
"Productivity measured by output per worker has slumped. Each UK worker is now producing less than in the last sharp productivity downturn in 2005 when employers hoarded staff during what was a short and mild economic slowdown. At that time, with little inflationary pressure in the economy, employers were prepared to absorb rising unit wage costs and take a short-run hit on profits rather than cut jobs. But this time around, as the economy moves into recession and with non-labour costs like fuel and energy and borrowing charges high, many employers will be feeling the squeeze.
"Today's figures indicate that employers have responded by working staff harder with the result that output per hour improved slightly in the second quarter, although still well below what was being achieved in 2006 and 2007. Modest pay rises have also helped contain what would otherwise have been an even sharper rise in unit wage costs. However, scope for adjusting to the emerging economic downturn without cutting jobs is becoming increasingly limited.
"Even without the impact of the latest global financial market turmoil this makes a late autumn and winter shake-out of jobs all the more likely - and means that the Bank of England should make an immediate and substantial cut in interest rates."
Notes to editors:
* John Philpott is available for interview
* The Chartered Institute of Personnel and evelopment (CIPD) has over 130,000 members and is the leading professional institute for those involved in the management and development of people
CIPD press enquiries: Gregor Ridley / Christian Zarro CIPD Press Office 151 The Broadway, London SW19 1JQ 020 8612 6400
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