|
|
|
|
![]() |
![]() |
 CIPD PRESS RELEASE 14 February 2008
Puzzling jobs figures show over fifties account
for majority of rise in employment
The latest official labour market statistics,
published earlier today by the Office for National
Statistics (ONS), show that the UK jobs market was
performing remarkably well in the final quarter of
2007. But says John Philpott, Chief Economist at
the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development
(CIPD), a number of conundrums surround the ONS
figures.
Dr Philpott commented as follows:
The buoyant jobs marked conundrum
"If it weren't for the fact that most economists
are forecasting an economic slowdown this year,
today's jobs figures would be a cause for celebration:
another big rise in employment, falling unemployment,
and pay pressure posing no great threat to price
inflation. What is surprising is that the ONS
figures show no sign whatsoever of the softening
in demand for staff identified by various recent
independent employer surveys, including the CIPD/KPMG
Labour Market Outlook survey published early this
week. The apparent conundrum might be explained by
the normal lag between turning points in economic
activity and the eventual labour market fall out.
But it might also indicate that the jobs outlook
isn't so bleak after all. Let's hope for the best
- but don't be too surprised if things soon start
to take a turn for the worse."
The older workers/migrant workers conundrum
"Taken at face value the ONS figures suggest
that most new jobs at present are going to people
aged 50 and over - this age cohort accounts for
almost 6 in 10 of the additional people in work
last year. But this sits oddly with the observation
that most new jobs are being taken by migrant
workers - a group overwhelmingly aged under 40.
"The CIPD reckons this conundrum is explained by
the fact that migrant workers are taking the lion's
share of new job vacancies while older workers are
instead better able than in the past to hold onto
their jobs. In jargon terms, over 50s employment is
rising because of increased job retention not
increased hiring of older workers. What this also
highlights is that home grown workers, not just those
from overseas, have benefited from the jobs boom of
recent years. It remains to be seen which groups will
fare best when the jobs market next enters tougher times."
Notes to editors:
* Dr John Philpott is available for interview.
* The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development
(CIPD) has over 130,000 members and is the leading
professional institute for those involved in the
management and development of people.
CIPD press enquiries:
Meera Vohora/Hannah Smith/Anna Wallace
CIPD Press Office
151 The Broadway, London SW19 1JQ
020 8612 6400
|
![]() |
 |
|
|
